files.nfl-forecast.comNFL playoff races and other musings

This is a blog that supplements nfl-forecast.com 2014 NFL Playoff Forecast after Week 16 December 24th, 2014 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software . Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics . Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Miami 0.0 94.484 5.516 0.0 Buffalo 0.0 5.516 94.484 0.0 NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 59.942 40.058 0.0 0.0 Cincinnati 40.058 59.942 0.0 0.0 Baltimore 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Houston 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 68.884 31.116 Tennessee 0.0 0.0 31.116 68.884 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kansas City 0.0 72.236 27.764 0.0 San Diego 0.0 27.764 72.236 0.0 Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Dallas 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Philadelphia 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Green Bay 67.76 32.24 0.0 0.0 Detroit 32.24 67.76 0.0 0.0 Minnesota 0.0 0.0 61.49 38.51 Chicago 0.0 0.0 38.51 61.49 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Carolina 53.536 14.672 31.792 0.0 New Orleans 0.0 68.708 31.292 0.0 Atlanta 46.464 16.62 36.916 0.0 Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Seattle 94.114 5.886 0.0 0.0 Arizona 5.886 94.114 0.0 0.0 San Francisco 0.0 0.0 94.114 5.886 St Louis 0.0 0.0 5.886 94.114 Generated: Wed Dec 24 19:07:36 EST 2014 Playoff Seedings AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Denver 0.0 97.056 2.944 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Cincinnati 0.0 2.944 37.114 0.0 59.942 0.0 100.0 Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 59.942 0.0 40.058 0.0 100.0 Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.504 44.504 San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.764 27.764 Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.224 20.224 Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.508 7.508 Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Seattle 82.95 0.0 11.164 0.0 5.886 0.0 100.0 Green Bay 11.504 56.256 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.24 100.0 Detroit 3.65 28.59 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.76 100.0 Arizona 1.896 3.99 0.0 0.0 94.114 0.0 100.0 Dallas 0.0 11.164 88.836 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.536 0.0 0.0 53.536 Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.464 0.0 0.0 46.464 NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generated: Wed Dec 24 19:07:35 EST 2014 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments » 2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 15 December 18th, 2014 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software . Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics . Division Finish Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Miami 0.0 54.69 45.31 0.0 Buffalo 0.0 45.31 54.69 0.0 NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 43.636 30.606 25.758 0.0 Cincinnati 39.494 25.998 34.508 0.0 Baltimore 16.87 43.396 31.638 8.096 Cleveland 0.0 0.0 8.096 91.904 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Houston 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Tennessee 0.0 0.0 67.424 32.576 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 32.576 67.424 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kansas City 0.0 73.622 26.378 0.0 San Diego 0.0 26.378 73.622 0.0 Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Dallas 70.88 29.12 0.0 0.0 Philadelphia 29.12 70.88 0.0 0.0 NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Green Bay 57.13 42.87 0.0 0.0 Detroit 42.87 57.13 0.0 0.0 Chicago 0.0 0.0 60.036 39.964 Minnesota 0.0 0.0 39.964 60.036 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th New Orleans 73.716 20.52 5.764 0.0 Carolina 16.266 59.778 23.956 0.0 Atlanta 10.018 19.702 70.28 0.0 Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Seattle 53.71 46.29 0.0 0.0 Arizona 46.29 53.71 0.0 0.0 San Francisco 0.0 0.0 86.66 13.34 St Louis 0.0 0.0 13.34 86.66 Generated: Wed Dec 17 22:57:06 EST 2014 Playoff Seedings AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total New England 62.122 30.57 5.774 1.534 0.0 0.0 100.0 Denver 37.742 60.878 1.126 0.254 0.0 0.0 100.0 Indianapolis 0.072 4.464 53.244 42.22 0.0 0.0 100.0 Pittsburgh 0.0 2.396 22.926 18.314 18.612 16.61 78.858 Cincinnati 0.064 1.692 13.738 24.0 21.974 20.15 81.618 Baltimore 0.0 0.0 3.192 13.678 27.446 32.144 76.46 Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.922 8.006 34.928 San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.436 5.944 9.38 Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.29 8.476 9.766 Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 8.122 8.442 Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.548 0.548 NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Seattle 43.75 6.38 3.58 0.0 38.192 6.04 97.942 Arizona 44.074 2.216 0.0 0.0 50.316 3.394 100.0 Green Bay 6.218 47.446 3.466 0.0 6.376 31.358 94.864 Dallas 4.454 9.128 57.298 0.0 2.284 7.504 80.668 Detroit 1.504 34.83 6.536 0.0 2.614 49.116 94.6 Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 29.12 0.0 0.218 2.588 31.926 New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.716 0.0 0.0 73.716 Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.266 0.0 0.0 16.266 Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.018 0.0 0.0 10.018 NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generated: Wed Dec 17 22:57:05 EST 2014 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments » 2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 14 December 10th, 2014 Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software . Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics . Division Finish Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th New England 94.822 3.642 1.536 0.0 Miami 4.538 78.932 16.53 0.0 Buffalo 0.64 17.426 81.934 0.0 NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 42.836 24.072 27.554 5.538 Baltimore 26.676 36.744 22.566 14.014 Cincinnati 26.206 26.156 30.294 17.344 Cleveland 4.282 13.028 19.586 63.104 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Indianapolis 93.298 6.702 0.0 0.0 Houston 6.702 93.298 0.0 0.0 Tennessee 0.0 0.0 62.954 37.046 Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 37.046 62.954 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Denver 99.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Kansas City 0.0 62.3 37.7 0.0 San Diego 0.1 37.6 62.3 0.0 Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Philadelphia 66.63 33.37 0.0 0.0 Dallas 33.37 66.63 0.0 0.0 NY Giants 0.0 0.0 76.544 23.456 Washington 0.0 0.0 23.456 76.544 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Green Bay 73.588 26.412 0.0 0.0 Detroit 26.412 73.588 0.0 0.0 Chicago 0.0...